Probable Cause: Dan Gryder<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/youtube.com\/@ProbableCause-DanGryder<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/thedtsb.org<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n 4:25<\/p>\n\n\n\n Learjet Part 135 crash. So, it’s very interesting. How could this possibly have happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:00<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0 secondsThe question is, how does ATC play a role in this uh event?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:05<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5 secondsI know why you’re here. You saw in the thumbnail for this video, and yes, we’re going to talk about it. The Larjet crash in Florida just happened just a very few<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:12<\/p>\n\n\n\n 12 secondshours ago. Basically, 4 hours ago, right now, that LAR 60 in Florida, we are going to talk about that even though it’s not a general aviation fatal. The<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:21<\/p>\n\n\n\n 21 secondswhole purpose of what we’re doing here is to try to lower the general aviation fatal accident rate. This was definitely a charter flight. It was a LER 16. We’re going to talk about that in just a moment. I know that’s why you’re here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:31<\/p>\n\n\n\n 31 secondsSo, I’m only going to give you a 30 second lead before we do that. [snorts] Before we talk about the Ljet crash, which has just happened, so we really don’t have very much information. I do<\/p>\n\n\n\n 0:40<\/p>\n\n\n\n 40 secondshave the ATC tape and a little bit of video and some stuff like that, so you can kind of draw your own conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1:58<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1 minute, 58 secondsHere’s one little section of this audio tape. This is a female first officer on the radio here and you can listen to<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:06<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 6 secondsthis this entire tape. I’ve got the whole thing and it is ugly. Listen to this. We’re going to crash into the ground. 722 Bravo Delta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:16<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 16 secondsNot good. November 722 Bravo Delta. I’m going to put the entire tape at the very end of this video with nothing, no<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:23<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 23 secondspictures, no video, just the entire tape start to finish in real time so you can listen to the whole thing if you want to. But it’s ugly. Uh I I can’t tell you<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:32<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 32 secondsuh how bad this one is. I’ve heard a lot of tapes. This one is truly horrific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:36<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 36 secondsThey knew they were going to die. She specifically knew she was about to die on this. And the entire thing has to do<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:44<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 44 secondswith ice and weather and storms. It’s a preventionbased thing. They had the opportunity to go around some stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2:50<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2 minutes, 50 secondsThey ended up in some stuff. It’s way too early to speculate on what they did, but their complaint was ice and more ice, clear ice. They talked about getting iced up and needing to climb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:00<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutesThey asked for a climb from 37,000 ft to flight level 390. 370 to 390. They asked for that climb. My only question is, did<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:09<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 9 secondsthey ice it up and stall or did they climb too aggressively? Remember that Learjet 60 swept wing is a critical<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:16<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 16 secondswing. You cannot host this thing up. You can’t pull it up rapidly. It will stall.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:22<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 22 seconds And a fully developed stall spin in a L 60 is pretty much not recoverable. This looks like a stall spin impact to me<\/strong>. I<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:30<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 30 seconds think it went in vertical. I think they were going around and round and I think that’s what she’s talking about.<\/strong> When you listen to this entire tape, if you stick around to the very very end to<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:38<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 38 secondslisten to the whole thing, I think there was a stall. And here’s just a little bit more of the video with a little bit of audio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3:56<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 minutes, 56 seconds What in the So, that’s really all we got so far. U a horrific crash. We still don’t know yet if there’s anybody on the ground that’s<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4:03<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4 minutes, 3 seconds been killed in this crash. I think it simply made a smok and hole in a empty parking lot someplace. I don’t think there was anybody else involved. I don’t<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4:12<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4 minutes, 12 secondsthink it hit any houses or people, but we still don’t know on this one yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4:17<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4 minutes, 17 secondsPart 135, it’s not a GA thing, so it’s not it’s totally outside of our wheelhouse, but I know a lot of you are interested in it. And yes, it’s a<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4:25<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4 minutes, 25 seconds Learjet Part 135 crash. So, it’s very interesting. How could this possibly have happened? Lots of questions yet to be answered when we get this thing<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:16<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 16 secondsMiami 72 Bravo Delta 350 turning direct free. We have light clear ice that is manageable and moderate [music] turbulence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:25<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 25 secondsOkay. Delta 2347 maintain Bravo 330.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:30<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 30 secondsDelta 2347. Aircraft is white clear ice and moderate turbulence. Say again. 722 Bravo Delta 350 moderate turbulence plus<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:39<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 39 secondsor minus okay now 700 ft 600 ft November so roger say outside air<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:47<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 47 secondstemperature -47\u00b0 C we’re managing the ice but it is moderate turbulence or direct report<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24:54<\/p>\n\n\n\n 24 minutes, 54 secondsokay 722 Bravo Delta Roger let me know if you need anything else I’m in my airspace right now thank you if you have any better rides<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:02<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 2 secondsuh let us know November two Bravo Delta. Uh the rides do improve in my aerospace. You’re uh you’re kind of far outside of it right<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:09<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 9 secondsnow and you can expect better arrives ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:12<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 12 secondsRoger Bravo Delta. And now we’re picking up precipitation. We need to climb um 370 to Bravo Delta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:19<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 19 secondsNovember 722 Bravo Delta. Roger. Climb and maintainable 370. No further right than your present. Heading for traffic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:26<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 26 secondsClimb 372 Bravo Delta. American 2122 contact center 132.95.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:36<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 36 secondsAmerican 2122 contact center 132.95. 722 Bravo Delta. We’re descending 8,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:43<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 43 secondsMayday. Mayday. We’re descending 10,000 ft per minute. November 722 Bravo Delta. Roger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:49<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 49 secondsDeclaring emergency 722 Bravo Delta. We are in an overseas condition. Descending 20,000 ft per minute. November 722 Bravo Delta. Roger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25:58<\/p>\n\n\n\n 25 minutes, 58 secondsAltitude, your discretion. Let me know what you need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:07<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 7 secondsWe’re going to crash into the ground. 72 Bravo Delta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:12<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 12 secondsNovember 2 Bravo Delta. I’m here with you. Talk to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:14<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 14 secondsWe are descending 22,000 ft and we are banking 60\u00b0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:25<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 25 secondsNovember 2 Bravo Delta. Roger. [ __ ] Look outside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:34<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 34 secondsHoly [ __ ] November 2 Bravo Delta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:48<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 48 secondsNovember 2 Bravo Delta. A lot easier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26:58<\/p>\n\n\n\n 26 minutes, 58 secondsNovember 2 Bravo Delta Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n __________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n Captain Convey Comment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I have become interested in finding out more about the Nov 1, 2026 Lear Jet 60 (Lawn Dart) Crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have watched different videos on different channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I could tell the pilots of this plane could have and should have kept far away from the known thunderstorms in the area.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I had kind of a debate with AI and corrected the AI result about 5 times until it got the correct conclusion about the most likely cause of the Iced up Lear Jet 60 lawn dart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on the warning, the other jets\u2019 requests to avoid the storms, and the Learjet\u2019s apparent path, a fatal weather-avoidance mistake by its pilots is a reasonable and, frankly, compelling explanation.<\/strong> I should have acknowledged that more directly. The NTSB still has to establish the official cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Learjet reported icing and turbulence, while the other jets apparently avoided the storm without the same trouble. That makes the Learjet\u2019s route and decision-making important questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pilot error is a serious possibility<\/strong>, and the reported weather warning and route choice deserve scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The NTSB says the crew reported icing and moderate turbulence, requested a climb, then reported an overspeed descent less than 30 seconds later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Your point is that other jets were routing around the storms, while the Learjet appears to have continued toward them despite a warning.<\/strong> That\u2019s a meaningful comparison and raises a fair question about why the Learjet didn\u2019t divert too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Reported ATC audio says the controller told the crew the turn toward Freeport \u201clooks pretty bad,\u201d with moderate-to-extreme precipitation 25 miles ahead<\/strong>, and later approved deviations left or right. The crew acknowledged the warning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n AI said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oh\u2014you mean a SIGMET<\/strong>. Yes: CNN reported that the Learjet was in an area where the FAA had issued a convective SIGMET<\/strong>, an advisory for significant thunderstorm-related hazards. wpsdlocal6.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n That establishes that the advisory existed for the area; it doesn\u2019t confirm whether this crew received it in a briefing or on an onboard display.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When aviation analysts on YouTube break down NTSB reports, they focus on the Probable Cause<\/strong> statement\u2014the official conclusion of what actually caused a crash. For private jets and general aviation, the most common probable causes follow these patterns:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Dominance of Human Error<\/strong> Human error is cited in over half of all aviation accidents, with some estimates reaching 80%. In NTSB reports, this is rarely a single mistake but rather a “chain of errors” often explained by the Swiss Cheese Model<\/strong>: multiple small failures (like a missed checklist item, pilot fatigue, and a slight weather shift) that align perfectly to cause a disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/data.thedtsb.org\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The DTSB is a US based IRS 501c(3) non profit corporation operated and managed by volunteers around the world. The goal of the organization is the linear reduction in the US General Aviation Fatal accident rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “In the instant of adrenaline-based, in-flight crisis onset, you don’t rise to your best level of FAA education and training, you sink to your lowest level of AQP muscle memory response gained through rehearsal and conditioning.”<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n ____________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n 3 days ago<\/a> Dan I earlier saw the Vas Aviation video on it. Sickening, They knew they had an icing issue and the Vas weather data showed they charged right into the core. Maybe they didn’t have detailed wx on board but you get the sinking feeling early on she knew they had a icing issue, went into worsening , significantly worsening conditions and became the proverbial “iced up lawn dart”<\/strong> Very sad, condolences to everyone and their families, hopefully nobody killed or injured on the ground. Keep up the good work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n __________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n Captain Convey Bonus Comment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The pilots were warned to avoid the storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They chose the wrong path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They made the wrong decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is human error that could have been avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Aircraft are suppose to stay 20 miles from known thunderstorms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 20 miles includes turbulance also from storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Learjet 60 and similar jets can quickly build up ice on wings and other control surfaces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trying to go above the thunderstorm was also a BIG mistake in this instance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Learjet 60 was already iced up because they were flying too close to a thunderstorm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They tried to correct by turning away from the thunderstorm but guess what? Too late, no banana!<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the controller radar and position of the Learjet 60 when they turned right the jet flew directly into a small cell that was red on the radar meaning heavy rain etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My speculation is they didn’t know this. Their on board radar maybe wasn’t adjusted right or didn’t show the significant thunderstorm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The jet was moving real fast. It didn’t leave them much time to compensate for a pop up thunderstorm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t understand why the controllers let them turn into the heavy small cell thunderstorm?<\/p>\n\n\n\n So thats more human error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With the accumulated ice on the jet already my conclusion is they still would not have made it even if the did avoid the intense small cell thunderstorm.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The pilots made bad choices?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The captain flies the jet. The copilot didn’t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Did the copilot advise the pilot on avoiding the thunderstorm in the beginning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Maybe, maybe not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If she did and the pilot didn’t take her advice he is to blame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If she advised him to keep going toward the thunderstorm and then climb it was bad advice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The pilot was flying the plane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He made the mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iced Up Lawn Dart with no control doomed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/youtube.com\/@ProbableCause-DanGryder<\/a> Chapter 1: Learjet 60 crash analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Chapter 7: Audio tape of Learjet crash<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n@philipcobbin3172<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Probable Cause: Dan Gryder<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
(Dan Gryder YouTube Channel)<\/p>\n\n\n\n